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当前二手车市场状况:2023年第二季度

2023年7月18日
4 分钟阅读

2023年5月/ 6月康拓仕评论

以下评论由ADESA Auctions首席经济学家Tom Kontos撰写.1

Summary

Average wholesale used vehicle prices softened from their April peaks in May and into June. Retail used vehicle sales and Certified Pre-Owned (CPO) sales continue to be well below pre-pandemic levels.

批发市场趋势*

According to ADESA US Analytical Services’ monthly analysis of auction industry used vehicle prices by vehicle model class, 5月份的批发价格平均为16美元,116 - 2.2个百分点，比4月份下降了9个百分点.与2022年5月相比，涨幅为7%，涨幅为38%.与大流行前/ 2019年5月相比，增幅为7%.

批发市场趋势

Average prices have continued to soften in June and stood at $15,204 for the week ending June 18.

Further insights on wholesale price trends can be gained by holding constant for auction 销售类型, 车型年龄和里程(下图中上线), 代表最新型号的单位), 以及价格趋势 所有 售出车辆(下图中较低的线).

批发市场趋势

Both groups show relatively modest price declines from their spring/tax season peaks in April.

A 电子表格 with historical data broken out by model class for the table and graph in this section has been provided with this report for your convenience in tracking these trends.

零售市场趋势

The following graph and table summarize data on retail used vehicle and CPO sales through May based on ADESA US Analytical Services’ analysis of data from NADA and Motor Intelligence, 分别.

批发市场趋势

批发市场趋势

二手车零售销售总体下降了2%.年初至今，CPO销售额增长了6%.0%，反映出对新款二手设备的强劲需求. Nevertheless, sales for both groups are down from stronger sales in 2021 and pre-pandemic.

#潮流

通货膨胀是经济学家和消费者最关心的问题, I have been including periodic references in this report to the consumer price index (CPI) for new and used vehicles. 在我对这些指标趋势的分析中, I have noted that the pandemic created an aberration in the historical relationship between used and new vehicle prices, 哪个倾向于同步移动. I noted that the used vehicle CPI had reached a ratio to the new vehicle CPI of nearly 1.2021年是3比1，而这一比例通常在1:1左右徘徊. The “correction” in used vehicle prices that occurred during the latter half of 2022 brought that ratio down to historical levels. 然而, the spring/tax season uptick that began in early 2023 and reached its zenith in April reversed this pattern and resulted in another elevated ratio between used and new vehicle prices.

下图显示了截至5月份这一比率的状况.

批发市场趋势

My expectation is that the softer wholesale prices in May and June will bring this ratio down again. 敬请期待.

参考 2023年第一季度报告 对上一季度的市场状况进行全面分析.

 

*来源: Analysis in this section is based on over six million annual sales transactions from over 250 of the largest U.S. wholesale auto auctions, including those of ADESA US as well as other auction companies. ADESA US Analytical Services segregates these transactions to study trends by vehicle model class, 销售类型, 模型一年, 等.

1免责声明: The views and analysis provided herein relate to the vehicle remarketing industry as a whole and may not relate directly to ADESA US. 这些观点和分析不是ADESA US的观点, 其管理, its subsidiaries or its parent companies; and their accuracy is not warranted.

前瞻性陈述: 本报告所载的陈述和ADESA美国的陈述, 其管理, its subsidiaries or its parent companies may make or所有y in connection with this report that are not historical facts (including, 但不限于, 预期, 估计, assumptions and projections regarding the industry and business) may be forward-looking statements. 像“可能”这样的词,”“应该,”“可能,”“会,”“预计,”“预计,”“计划,”“计划,”“相信,”“寻求,”“估计,”“承诺,“很可能”,”“前景,”“潜在,“项目”及类似表述均为前瞻性陈述. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materi所有y from the results projected, 由前瞻性陈述表达或暗示. Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include those matters disclosed in the “Risk Factors” identified in Carvana Co.美国证券交易委员会(sec)的备案文件. Neither ADESA US nor its subsidiaries or parent companies undertakes any obligation to update any forward-looking statements.